The precip band and low is already further North than anticipated by certain models, except for the NAM which is more of a short-term model. That's not a good sign. The faster the low moves Northeast, the less time it has to pull energy from the Gulf and Atlantic and strengthen, meaning that we won't have as much cold air brought down from the North as she whips up. Checking out some of the models, the 540 critical thickness line for rain/snow lifts into central PA at the onset. Shit. We could have mixing issues as the precip shield heads North into our area despite my current temp at 25.
This bitch is already on our doorstep.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php
Can't get any closer than this for trying to keep the precip type all snow. Seriously, this is one of those where it can be snowing in Hagerstown while Frederick has sleet for the first 4 hours. Impossible to predict.