If Hamburg wins tomorrow it's over for Italy right?
Not only if they win. Even if they draw and qualify, it's game over for Italy even if Inter beats Bayern and Hamburg loses the final.
If Hamburg plays 0:0 (wins on penalties), 1:1, 2:2 etc and lose the final, while Bayern also lose the final, the Germans will have 64.540 pts at the end. Even if Inter wins the CL final the most Italy can have is 64.337.
Hell, even if Hamburg plays 0:0 tonight and lose on penalties and both Germans lose the finals, Germany will still have 64.373 pts which is more than what Italy will have.
The only scenario where Italy wins is:
- Fulham wins tonight (not draw+penalty win) and Inter wins the final (but not on penalties).
In that case Germany will have 64.207 while Italy 64.337 pts.