Atm, for me, these Olympics are about China and USA. After today the Chinese are winning 32:24 and that's a perfect difference to make the last days interesting, because there aren't many events left where China are favorites for the gold, while the USA still have the team sports and athletics.
Imo, China will most probably win 6 more golds (2 in athletics, men and women 20km walk; 2 in the remaining diving disciplines; probably both remaining table-tennis finals), and they will fight for the gold in artistic swimming (where the Russians are big favs) and women's karate. That's almost surely 4, probably 6, possibly 7 or 8. If they win 6, as expected, they will end up at 38, which is very hard, but achievable for the Americans.
But team US will have to do much better. They won 5 less gold medals in swimming compared to Rio, 2 less in gymnastics, and they're doing bad in athletics where they won only 2 gold medals so far, while in Rio, for these same disciplines which have already finished, they had 4 golds. That's 9 gold medals less compared to Rio in sports which they were expected to easily dominate.