Stock Market (22 Viewers)

[AFL_ITALIA]

How are you holding up @AFL_ITALIA @Bjerknes
This sea of red is painful to witness.

Sold out of some things, profiting on some and slight losses on others just to have something.

Everyday I wonder if I should just sell everything at this point. But things like Google, Apple, Blackrock, Disney, etc will surely come back to their highs at some point, who knows when though. Tesla I'm iffy about but I'll continue to hold and hope for the best.

 

Buy on AliExpress.com

[campionesidd]

Sold out of some things, profiting on some and slight losses on others just to have something.

Everyday I wonder if I should just sell everything at this point. But things like Google, Apple, Blackrock, Disney, etc will surely come back to their highs at some point, who knows when though. Tesla I'm iffy about but I'll continue to hold and hope for the best.

Im getting crushed pretty bad. TGT’s earnings were the cherry on the cake lol. I’m also running out of cash to buy the dip, so just trying to avoid looking at my portfolio else I’d be tempted to sell.

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

Im getting crushed pretty bad. TGT’s earnings were the cherry on the cake lol. I’m also running out of cash to buy the dip, so just trying to avoid looking at my portfolio else I’d be tempted to sell.

Yeah those earnings were horrific, gonna be a rough year ahead.
I'm still sitting on my cash pile, since "buying the dip" to me would imply we're at the bottom, and well...

 

[campionesidd]

Yeah those earnings were horrific, gonna be a rough year ahead.
I'm still sitting on my cash pile, since "buying the dip" to me would imply we're at the bottom, and well...

Yeah definitely tough times ahead.
I want to increase my cash position, but also continue to DCA and save for retirement and put cash aside for my ESPP. The only reliable way of doing this is by cutting down on my expenses, so less eating and drinking out and travel till I’m satisfied with my cash on hand. Gonna be rice and beans and water for the rest of the year lol.

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

Yeah definitely tough times ahead.
I want to increase my cash position, but also continue to DCA and save for retirement and put cash aside for my ESPP. The only reliable way of doing this is by cutting down on my expenses, so less eating and drinking out and travel till I’m satisfied with my cash on hand. Gonna be rice and beans and water for the rest of the year lol.

De Cecco, Barilla, and Tuttorosso gonna pull us through this as always

 

[alaska]

Yeah definitely tough times ahead.
I want to increase my cash position, but also continue to DCA and save for retirement and put cash aside for my ESPP. The only reliable way of doing this is by cutting down on my expenses, so less eating and drinking out and travel till I’m satisfied with my cash on hand. Gonna be rice and beans and water for the rest of the year lol.

Rice and beans is a bit extreme, but since the pandemic (which has meant working from home for me), I went from eating out 1-2 meals a day to eating out like once every three weeks. Does wonders for the pocketbook, and everything extra goes into my portfolio.

 

[Bjerknes]

How are you holding up @AFL_ITALIA @Bjerknes
This sea of red is painful to witness.

Not great. I’ve been pretty bearish and yet the volatility is killing me. If we don’t get a bounce next week we’re in trouble short term, but I still think that overall we have such massive problems that we are on the brink of an inflationary depression, my worst fear.

 

[alaska]

Have to once again recommend commodity-related investments in this environment.

 

[campionesidd]

Have to once again recommend commodity-related investments in this environment.

The problem with those is that they’re very cyclical, so you need to time it right when selling them.

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

Kellogg is looking pretty decent YTD, they pay a pretty good dividend and have good earnings too recently.

 

[alaska]

The problem with those is that they’re very cyclical, so you need to time it right when selling them.

In general yes, although the cycles have always been in an environment when ESG didn't exist. This is the first major upcycle in an environment where it takes 5ever to build a mine and oil exploration is starved of capital. Even a lot of the private equity guys have left.

Will it be up for ever? No, there will still be some cyclicality. But there are structural factors that are different now.

- - - Updated - - -

Kellogg is looking pretty decent YTD, they pay a pretty good dividend and have good earnings too recently.

Quick gut check - I don't know anybody who eats breakfast cereal. There's probably some juice in the pringles and cheez-its business lines, and all of that stuff is probably relatively high-margin (haven't looked at the numbers). Also I would expect wheat is a fairly large input for that company and wheat prices are going through the roof due to Ukraine.

All in all I would still prefer a consumer staple name like Kellogg compared to a 5X revenue tech name.

 

[Tak!]

I have been following Ekobot for a while now. Any thoughts?

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

All this green...I'm not buying it. Macroeconomic situation hasn't changed at all, why the big gains these last two days (so far)? Oversold?

 

[campionesidd]

All this green...I'm not buying it. Macroeconomic situation hasn't changed at all, why the big gains these last two days (so far)? Oversold?

I think we probably haven’t hit the bottom yet, but seeing a little bit of green every now and then does wonders for your portfolio confidence.

 

[alaska]

Let's hear your most contrarian idea, the one you're afraid to even admit.

Mine: Shipping names could be interesting if geopolitical tensions continue. The problem is that shipping is a fucking terrible business and extremely cyclical. Shipping management teams make oil & gas shitco management look like geniuses by comparison.

 

[campionesidd]

Let's hear your most contrarian idea, the one you're afraid to even admit.

Mine: Shipping names could be interesting if geopolitical tensions continue. The problem is that shipping is a fucking terrible business and extremely cyclical. Shipping management teams make oil & gas shitco management look like geniuses by comparison.

Not really contrarian, many people believe this too but here goes:

Corporate earnings and earnings growth are the only thing you should pay attention to in the market. As long as they’re healthy, you’re good. You can ignore everything else: inflation, interest rates, war, famine, supply chain issues, etc .

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

loading up on small US & Canadian oil and natty gas producers lately. there's stuff available at like 1-2X free cash flow. most of the market isn't allowed to buy them because "muh ESG"

 

[alaska]

Did you end up grabbing some?

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

Did you end up grabbing some?

SD, apparently not nearly enough though. TPL is flying right now too but I was put off by the high price per share, maybe on the next dip...

Also I was so so close to buying my first ever calls, they were so cheap but I said "I'll do it tomorrow after I do more research on how they work," and then the market shot up and the price more than doubled

 

[alaska]

SD, apparently not nearly enough though. TPL is flying right now too but I was put off by the high price per share, maybe on the next dip...

Also I was so so close to buying my first ever calls, they were so cheap but I said "I'll do it tomorrow after I do more research on how they work," and then the market shot up and the price more than doubled

I like SD in some ways better than some of the Canadian stuff I mentioned, because it has a bunch of cash and no debt.

Also, remember I mentioned that fund manager who I got the ideas from? He just blocked me on Twitter (due to a total misunderstanding, he thought I said something about him that was actually about someone else).