I think it might be a landslide victory for her.
Is she the best candidate? Probably not. But she's not a geriatric. For anyone under 60 that changes the entire perspective. Trump, aside from all the shit he has done in his life, is 78. He can bitch about energy and strength as long as he wants, deep down everyone knows that at 78, you're old.
I don't see it. We live in complex, interconnected, unpredictable times. There are a lot of people who live to believe, who desperately need to believe, in the safety blanket that chaos and complexity can simply be swept out of the house and it disappears, making their lives simple again.
More than two genders? My head hurts!
Post-COVID inflation goes up? It's Joe Biden!
Trump missed by a bullet? Cannot be random luck. Must be divine intervention.
Trump serves that very need. That promise that a single strong man can protect you and make the complexity go away in life. Some people deeply need that, and it's also why authoritarianism is always on the political menu.
IMO, one of the Republican party's great failures is their "Fire and Forget" strategy as their only answer to every problem. They're doing it now with the Secret Service. They tried to do it with Mayorkas on the U.S. southern border. And it nicely fit's Trumps "You're fired!" TV game show persona.
Trouble is that complex systems are driven by intertwined relationships among huge numbers, not by single points of failure. Human brains can't handle that the nation doesn't operate like a lawn mower engine where you can just replace bad, serviceable parts. You are not going to fix Twitter's ills by merely replacing Elon Musk. (He technically even did that himself... anybody remember Linda Yaccarino?) Is there any wonder why the GOP has had zero response to American school shootings other than "we need more guns"? That festering wound is now bleeding over to threaten the lives of their own candidates.
These problems require ideas, experimentation, failure, and many, many changes, observations, and corrections. But that's too much work and not simple enough for simpletons and the impatient. So the answer is to cap an ass and the problem goes away. Simple, done. Yay, we got our mini-beheading French revolution.
But it never solves the root problems. Vance talks about tackling the "Deep State" by replacing as many people as possible -- a many fire and forget -- but he seems oblivious to the fact that bureaucracies are self-sustaining and emerge with goals of their own regardless of who you put in the chair. it's the same circus, just different clowns.