Superstar sweepstakes
This might be the most bizarre transfer market ever
Did you pay attention in Econ 101? Remember the law of supply and demand?
If you do, you probably know that this is the single most unusual transfer market in recent history. And even then, there's the odd move, which -- seemingly -- has no grounding whatsoever in common sense.
One thing at a time. The law of supply and demand states that the greater the supply, the lower the price, provided demand stays constant or falls. And, of course, the reverse is true.
What we are seeing this summer is that, following the dismantling of Juventus, the supply of top players on the market has gone through the roof. Lilian Thuram, Fabio Cannavaro, Gianluca Zambrotta and Emerson have already been sold, Patrick Vieira and Mauro Camoranesi are on their way, with David Trézéguet, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and, possibly, Gigi Buffon likely to follow.
Throw in the rest of a talented crop (some who have already moved, others who may yet do so) angling for the big time -- Lukas Podolski, Michael Ballack, Andriy Shevchenko, Fernando Torres, Luca Toni, Ruud van Nistelrooy, William Gallas, Carlos Tévez, Ashley Cole, Javier Mascherano -- and what you have is a veritable glut of talent on offer.
The market for players of this magnitude -- guys who expect to earn in excess of $7 million a year -- is tiny to begin with, and with Juventus out of the mix, there are no more than eight clubs left who can even think about signing them: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Inter, Chelsea, AC Milan (provided UEFA confirms its place in Champions League next season -- a decision is expected shortly), Manchester United, Bayern Munich and possibly Liverpool.
Real, Barcelona and Bayern seem to have already completed their shopping for the summer.
Chelsea (a left back, most likely Cole) and Liverpool (a striker) are looking for one more signing. Arsenal is not the kind of team to break the bank, which leaves United, Inter and Milan (UEFA permitting) as the only teams likely to still spend big.
That's why, if those three clubs play their cards right, they can find some veritable bargains. They're like the guys who show up at a garage sale at dusk, with plenty of stuff still on offer. That's what Econ 101 would suggest. In fact, the transfer market sometimes acts in strange and mysterious ways.
Take United, which paid $33 million for Michael Carrick this week. Carrick is a fine holding midfielder and a delightful young man. But $33 million? You could have bought both Lyon's Mahamadou Diarra and his namesake, Lens' Alou Diarra, for that amount and had plenty of change left over. And you'd probably be better off.
Or how about Real, which shelled out $20 million on van Nistelrooy? The same amount would have fetched Trézéguet, who is younger and just as prolific.
But that's the weird unpredictability of the transfer market. It's not transparent and it's certainly not an exact science. A player's valuation is a convoluted cocktail of ability, age, wages, how many years he has left on his contract and how many clubs are interested in him and can afford him.
Torres may indeed be worth $40 million, as Atlético Madrid insists. But who can afford to pay that much? Maybe United, maybe Milan. That's it. And will they want to bid that much when Torres has only two years left on his current contract, which means his price is likely to halve in 12 months' time? Not to mention the alternatives:
For that kind of money you can probably get Ibrahimovic and Tévez. Two for the price of one.
That's what makes this summer so interesting. The scandal in Italy has had far-reaching implications, not only in terms of clubs circling around Juventus' spoils but also for those players hoping to make the jump to the big time. With cash already scarce (Chelsea notwithstanding), players feeling the pressure to move and a limited number of clubs who can afford them, this could be the most bargain-laden summer in history.
It's also a reminder that at the highest level, players don't "belong" to the Premiership, La Liga or Serie A. They belong to those seven or eight clubs who can actually afford them, strewn across Europe's top leagues. You could say that, in that sense, the European super-league is already here.
Gabriele Marcotti