Mafia 2015.2 - The Game (2 Viewers)

[Klin]

So the vote count was like this before Ocelot exposed Matt. Matt was asking for Soren's auto lynch earlier which was actually the first red flag in his game. I'm almost sure Soren is a C. He had three votes one of which had come from Matt. If both Klin and Soren are Cs, in case of a voting split like that above, Gs will refrain from being involved in any of the two groups (if Cs are going to kill a C themselves, why should Gs get themselves involved in that). This leads me to thinking that Klin must be a G.

Fred's reasoning of why Soren must be a G is not making any sense. There are far better and stronger reasons why Soren must be a civilian: 1) his fake account was too big a stunt for a G to pull. 2) his reaction when he thought Ocelot was unintentionally helping Gs figure the detective out was telling.

Klin and Fred are highly suspicious. I'd suggest that the D investigates either of the two.

I can't argue with your line of thinking as it makes sense and I wish there was more of this in these games instead of randomly accusing people.

But there are some factors which doesn't back up your theory;

From what Ocelot said, he figured out Matt was lying about being the D since X got jailed at 14:58.

X is in jail

If Ocelot knew Matt wasn't the D at that exact time, what would have been the point of Matt voting for me 3 hours later when he could have easily voted for someone else, knowing fully well that he will get lynched later that day? It doesn't make sense to vote for another G when you're a confirmed G yourself. This is also why I believe Soren is also a sure C.

@Fred I see.
Soren
@ALC I've been active bruh.

The fact that Fred has been going against Soren for a whole day speaks volume as well.

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Why is Klin off the list?

It doesn't make sense.

Fred has been playing "soft" with me since the beginning. This is not normal.

 

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[Salvo]

Fred has been soft with everyone, he hasn't played at all like he did last game

and sorry Klin my main man, either have you.

 

[Fred]

The list is the list? Wtf? Give me one good reason why the list doesn't have the top two posters.

You're obviously new to the list, let me give you some background.

The list is based on historical trends, it looks at data from previous games, one observation I've made from the last 4-5 games is that by day2-3 usually the top two posters are C's, they tend to be targeted because they are the most visible, they usually turn out to be clueless C's trying to figure the game out. I used to take out the top 3 posters, but in some games including the last one the poster #3 turned out to be a G. So I've tweaked the list to make it eliminate only the top two. The purpose of the list is to reduce the negative effects of our unintentional and sub conscious biases. So for example, in my mind Soren is still my top suspect, but because the list is based on objective historical data I have to ignore my hunch.

Now one criticism, that can be directed at the list, is that it doesn't account for the reasons of some posters being very active, for example when a player is in danger, he would naturally be very active in order to save himself, so Quetz yesterday, his activity was nothing other than him trying to save himself.

Alen is the only outlier so far to the list, he's consistently been the most active poster on mafia games no matter what his role is. I personally assume Osman would have been the same, but he never lives enough for us to have accurate data on that.

 

[Ford Prefect]

If Matt pmed anyone after he was lynched please ignore him or check with me.

 

[Fred]

Why is Klin off the list?

He's the most active poster alongside Soren. Historically, the top two posters on day 3 are normal civilians, not even civilians with special roles. I feel secure making that assumption based on historical data.

Then again, Soren's activity might be due to him trying to protect himself, which as I mentioned in my previous post, is the main criticism that can be leveled against the list, it doesn't take into account the reasons for why a particular player might sometimes become active, such as trying to save himself.

I can't argue with your line of thinking as it makes sense and I wish there was more of this in these games instead of randomly accusing people.

But there are some factors which doesn't back up your theory;

From what Ocelot said, he figured out Matt was lying about being the D since X got jailed at 14:58.



If Ocelot knew Matt wasn't the D at that exact time, what would have been the point of Matt voting for me 3 hours later when he could have easily voted for someone else, knowing fully well that he will get lynched later that day? It doesn't make sense to vote for another G when you're a confirmed G yourself. This is also why I believe Soren is also a sure C.



The fact that Fred has been going against Soren for a whole day speaks volume as well.

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It doesn't make sense.

Fred has been playing "soft" with me since the beginning. This is not normal.

Klin, you know the same could be said about you. Ever since the beginning of Mafia games, I've always been your target, you haven't even looked my way all game long.

I went after Soren, but the list now obliges me to let it go. It also obliges me to let go of you as well.

Fred has been soft with everyone, he hasn't played at all like he did last game

and sorry Klin my main man, either have you.

I haven't been soft on Soren at all, on the contrary i almost got him lynched yesterday.

 

[Klin]

Fred has been soft with everyone, he hasn't played at all like he did last game

and sorry Klin my main man, either have you.

That's an outright lie, Sal. He has been against Soren since his post about the BG protecting himself, even though it was clear as daylight that Soren did a mistake and read incorrectly.

 

[Salvo]

I am convinced both you guys are G's. Klin is playing completely different, way more conservative.

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That's an outright lie, Sal. He has been against Soren since his post about the BG protecting himself, even though it was clear as daylight that Soren did a mistake and read incorrectly.

It was more a general comment, I recall him being far more aggressive last game.

 

[Klin]

Klin, you know the same could be said about you. Ever since the beginning of Mafia games, I've always been your target, you haven't even looked my way all game long.

I went after Soren, but the list now obliges me to let it go. It also obliges me to let go of you as well..

I don't buy it. I never voted against you, but I always have an eye on you. Look how many times I mentioned you because I wanted to know where you were and what you're thinking. I never assume anything with you like you're doing with me, and I don't know if this is a tactic you're using now, but I'm surely not a confirmed C just because I'm the poster with the most posts here.

 

[Fred]

I am convinced both you guys are G's. Klin is playing completely different, way more conservative.

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It was more a general comment, I recall him being far more aggressive last game.

I agree about Klin, the fact that he hasn't blatantly targeted people, myself included makes him very suspicious in my eyes. But the list is the list Salvo, and while you could make an argument that Soren was actve because he was trying to save himself, you cannot say the same of Klin. So in his case, the list precludes him from being a G at this point.

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I am convinced both you guys are G's. Klin is playing completely different, way more conservative.

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It was more a general comment, I recall him being far more aggressive last game.

I agree about Klin, the fact that he hasn't blatantly targeted people, myself included makes him very suspicious in my eyes. But the list is the list Salvo, and while you could make an argument that Soren was actve because he was trying to save himself, you cannot say the same of Klin. So in his case, the list precludes him from being a G at this point.

 

[Klin]

Fred is playing this brilliantly FFS.

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"the list is the list Salvo" fuck you!

 

[Fred]

I don't buy it. I never voted against you, but I always have an eye on you. Look how many times I mentioned you because I wanted to know where you were and what you're thinking. I never assume anything with you like you're doing with me, and I don't know if this is a tactic you're using now, but I'm surely not a confirmed C just because I'm the poster with the most posts here.

You're not a confirmed C, thats too strong a term. Plus even if you were a C, you could still be recruited later.

Btw, you were precluded because of the list in the last game, and you did indeed turn out to be a C.

The list is based on historical data, it does not take into account my convictions, hunches, personal feelings or any other subjective factor. If you turn out to be a G, fair plauy, I'll tip my hat off to you for a game well played.

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Fred is playing this brilliantly FFS.

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"the list is the list Salvo" fuck you!

I've used the list in the past 3 games now. It has only let me down in the last game with Ocelot being the #3 poster, I took him out, and he turned out to be a G. You and Voller were C's and you were the top 2 posters.

 

[ALC]

I understand where he's coming from with the list. Got a point about the most active players being mainly C but that's also because there's more citizens than gangsters.

 

[Klin]

You're not a confirmed C, thats too strong a term. Plus even if you were a C, you could still be recruited later.

Btw, you were precluded because of the list in the last game, and you did indeed turn out to be a C.

The list is based on historical data, it does not take into account my convictions, hunches, personal feelings or any other subjective factor. If you turn out to be a G, fair plauy, I'll tip my hat off to you for a game well played.

Now this is different and makes more sense, but if this game thought me anything, is that it's really pointless to base your judgement on previous games. I remember once we lynched Zach just because in a previous game he was a G. He then turned out to be a special role C. I always post a lot in this game. It's what I do and I can't help it, but your behavior now makes me most suspicious of you.

You managed to get heat on me by implying you're not a suspect of me. That's how obvious you were to others that you're always against me.

 

[Fred]

Your problem guys, is hubris, its a problem I face in my line of work too. Managers always want to hire people based on hunches, intuition and personal feelings, it doesn't work because our intuition is a product of our sub conscious bias. I'll give you an example, the moment I saw Soren make that reaction after Ocelot protected himself, I became convinced he was a G. After that almost everything Soren did and said made me believe even more that he's a G, that is called "confirmation bias". Look it up.

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Your problem guys, is hubris, its a problem I face in my line of work too. Managers always want to hire people based on hunches, intuition and personal feelings, it doesn't work because our intuition is a product of our sub conscious bias. I'll give you an example, the moment I saw Soren make that reaction after Ocelot protected himself, I became convinced he was a G. After that almost everything Soren did and said made me believe even more that he's a G, that is called "confirmation bias". Look it up.

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I understand where he's coming from with the list. Got a point about the most active players being mainly C but that's also because there's more citizens than gangsters.

Now this is different and makes more sense, but if this game thought me anything, is that it's really pointless to base your judgement on previous games. I remember once we lynched Zach just because in a previous game he was a G. He then turned out to be a special role C. I always post a lot in this game. It's what I do and I can't help it, but your behavior now makes me most suspicious of you.

You managed to get heat on me by implying you're not a suspect of me. That's how obvious you were to others that you're always against me.

You will be much more reserved when you're a G. and your example of Zach is completely irrelevant, that is another example of personal feelings and biases getting in the way.

 

[Salvo]

Fred is playing this brilliantly FFS.

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"the list is the list Salvo" fuck you!

 

[Ragazza]

Has Fred ever mentioned this list of his before?

 

[Fred]

Has Fred ever mentioned this list of his before?

Yes, in the past two games I used it, it has a 90% success rate.

 

[Ragazza]

I meant talk about it in public, I can't remember you doing it in my game.

 

[Fred]

I did, but then I got lynched immediately.

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http://forum.juventuz.org/threads/40607-Mafia-Chaos-in-the-Kingdom-of-Tuz?p=4780437&viewfull=1#post4780437
@Ragazza

 

[Ragazza]

Thanks.

Gonna get some sleep, I'll be back later.