King Abdullah of Saudi has just passed away... (1 Viewer)

Juventino[RUS]

Juventino[RUS]

Senior Member
#26
Mar 9, 2006
29,039
#26
"The heir & next ruler, Prince Salman is 79 years old and in very poor health.
In August 2010, Prince Salman underwent spine surgery in the United States and remained out of the kingdom for recovery. He had one stroke and despite physiotherapy, his left arm does not work as well as his right. After his appointment as Crown Prince various analysts including Simon Henderson argue that he is suffering from dementia. In addition, he is believed to be suffering from Alzheimer's disease."

How this even possible to become a leader of the whole arabian region with his health, about what Abdullah was thinking
 
OP

ReBeL

The Jackal
Thread Starter #27
Jan 14, 2005
22,871
  • Thread Starter
    • Thread Starter #27
    Juventino[RUS];4802227 said:
    "The heir & next ruler, Prince Salman is 79 years old and in very poor health.
    In August 2010, Prince Salman underwent spine surgery in the United States and remained out of the kingdom for recovery. He had one stroke and despite physiotherapy, his left arm does not work as well as his right. After his appointment as Crown Prince various analysts including Simon Henderson argue that he is suffering from dementia. In addition, he is believed to be suffering from Alzheimer's disease."

    How this even possible to become a leader of the whole arabian region with his health, about what Abdullah was thinking
    Click to expand...
    Leader of the Arab region? Who said so?
    You mean Saudi Arabia?
    And by the way, Salman was not chosen by Abdullah to be his crown prince. Just for info
     
    Osman

    Osman

    Koul Khara!
    #28
    Aug 30, 2002
    59,292
    #28
    You talk like this is done in logical meritocratic way, this is just a inbred nepotistic heinous dictatorship, Salman takes over simply because he is next in line due to seniority. Will be the figurehead until he passes away.


    Btw you need to correct your sentence, its not leader of whole of arabian region, weird to say so.
     
    OP

    ReBeL

    The Jackal
    Thread Starter #29
    Jan 14, 2005
    22,871
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    • Thread Starter #29
    This is a very good article by Foreign Policy before the death of Abdullah:

    The kingdom’s leadership is arguably actually at a crossroads, with two royal factions vying for preeminence. The outcome could produce a whole range of new faces in positions of power in Riyadh. This could emerge as a problem for Washington, as experienced hands could be replaced with merely ambitious ones. In these circumstances, King Abdullah’s likely legacy of a slightly cranky approach to progress — allowing for some marginalization of the more obscurantist clerics but always retaining a foot on the proverbial brake — could become a distant memory.

    To understand why the coming succession battle will be so thorny, it’s important to understand the succession system that has operated in Saudi Arabia since its founding. All the main characters — King Abdullah himself, as well as Crown Prince Salman and Deputy Crown Prince Muqrin — are sons of the kingdom’s founder, King Abdulaziz, also known as Ibn Saud. When he died in 1953, Ibn Saud left a system in which the throne passed from son to younger son, rather than from father to son. All but a few of the original 35 sons of Ibn Saud who were still alive in 1953 have since died. Of those remaining — other than Abdullah himself, Salman, and Muqrin — all have been passed over for the throne. At 69 years old, Muqrin, the son of a Yemeni slave girl, is the youngest surviving son.

    In essence, the struggle pits the Sudairis, the largest single group of full brothers among Ibn Saud’s sons, against the rest. Originally seven strong, the Sudairis all were born to the same mother, who came from the Sudairi tribe — hence their moniker, “the Sudairi Seven.” The group included some of Ibn Saudi’s most ambitious sons, and has dominated the House of Saud since the 1960s. King Fahd (died 2005), Crown Prince Sultan (died 2011), and Crown Prince Nayef (died 2012) were Sudairis, and older brothers of Crown Prince Salman. The remaining brothers are former Vice Minister of Defense Prince Abdulrahman, black sheep Prince Turki, and former Vice Minister of Interior Prince Ahmed.

    The rise to prominence of King Abdullah — who was younger than Fahd, whom he succeeded, but older than Sultan — was achieved despite the best efforts of the Sudairis to thwart him. But since becoming king in 2005, Abdullah has had to accept three Sudairis as his crown prince: Sultan, then Nayef, and now Salman. With no full brothers of his own, he made alliances with other non-Sudairi princes to cement his authority. And crucially, he was also commander of the Saudi Arabia National Guard, the kingdom’s largest fighting force.

    From a Western perspective, the way forward is for Abdullah to abdicate, Salman to be sidelined (there is a mechanism to declare the king or crown prince medically unfit), and for Muqrin to become king. From a Saudi point of view, however, this wouldn’t work. Within the royal family, there is tremendous respect for ancestry, history, and the orderly transfer of power.Within the royal family, there is tremendous respect for ancestry, history, and the orderly transfer of power. Even though Salman might not be up to the job, it’s politically very hard to for Saudi royals to push him aside: The princes hate any suggestion of dissension, which would then be visible to the wider world. The House of Saud was enormously embarrassed in the 1960s when Ibn Saud’s successor, King Saud, had to be pushed aside for demonstrable incompetence. Mere fecklessness is easier to paper over.

    So, given Abdullah’s incapacity, Salman’s continuing ambition (or what instead may be his sons’ lust for power), and Muqrin’s apparent reluctance to raise his own profile to project leadership potential, it is easy to understand that many Saudis seem to think that the accession of Salman is inevitable. This logic would suggest that — again, not wanting to rock the boat too much — Salman would anoint Muqrin as his own crown prince.

    But that’s not necessarily how Salman’s accession to the throne would play out. As king, he would be entitled to appoint his own crown prince. Yes, Abdullah created the job description of “deputy crown prince” and put Muqrin in the role — but that doesn’t guarantee Muqrin would be promoted. Abdullah’s attempt to secure Muqrin an advance oath of allegiance from other senior princes was not unanimous. Salman could reverse Abdullah’s plans once he becomes king, perhaps appointing his previously passed-over full brother, Ahmed, as crown prince. However, that concentration of power may be more than the non-Sudairi princes would tolerate.

    This still leaves open the question of where the throne goes after Muqrin: Once all of Ibn Saud’s sons are dead or incapacitated, which grandson of Ibn Saud will inherit the title of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques? And given Saudi Arabia’s central role in the current challenges of the Middle East, is it enough that the succession be smooth — or should Washington and other Western capitals encourage the House of Saud to allow the prince with the greatest experience and leadership qualities to emerge on top?

    There is at least one argument that should trump the institutional conservatism in the palaces of Riyadh: Given the regional threats in the Middle East, making a muddled decision on a leader now could threaten the future of the royal house itself.
    Click to expand...
     
    Catenaccio

    Catenaccio

    Senior Member
    #32
    Jul 15, 2002
    2,903
    #32
    Juventino[RUS];4802213 said:
    any ideas what he will do with the oil prices?
    Click to expand...
    Some oil stocks had a bit of a rally today on the back of the news. Saudi has committed to full production at around 10m barrels per day which is roughly 11% of total world output (which is around 90mbpd). Current oversupply is around 2-3mbpd. The saudis are trying to force US shale to shut - US shale is now around 3-4mbpd with a high cost of production and it was growing at an additional 1mbpd a year. By the end of the decade, north america would no longer be a net importer of oil and be 100% self sufficient.

    I think the Saudi game plan is to drive the price down so that the US keeps importing oil. It would take 18-24months for shutdowns on shale at current oil prices.

    My guess is that the guy that takes over will maintain the policy the king enforced.
     
    Bjerknes

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    #39
    Mar 16, 2004
    111,601
    #39
    The US media is making this guy out to be a saint. As Alex Jones said, it's as if Santa Claus had died.

    Who cares?

    I'm sure King Abdullah was a merciful clown.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Seven said:
    Because with these evil $#@!s you can't be sure enough.
    Click to expand...
    :lol:

    Good stuff.
     
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