I don't get this, how do Barca and Roma rate him so highly while you've been clear from the beginning he ain't all that?
Not doubting you here or anything, I actually believe your rating more than what their but its weird they both want him.
Once Barcelona is after him, it's not weird that any club of the world follows them. They are the reference right now. And they make mistakes. They've done millionaire signings of Brazilians before that we in Brazil knew were absolutely weird. Like Geovanne (a kid from Cruzeiro) and Keirrisson (a few years ago - cost around 16M). They have shady business in Brazil (see Neymar, Laporta, Rosell).
The kid has some talent? Absolutely. But he's flawed and not only when it comes to lack of maturity - he's not very fast, can't really dribble past his opponent on 1v1, barely uses the right foot. His movement off the ball is very poor, he spends most of games without touching the ball, his stamina is bad. He's kind of struggling at the pros and is due to some bench time I believe.
But he has great vision and passing, this is a special gift which is rare nowadays. He's also strong, can hold his own, finishes very well, have a special left foot, great first touch/technique. He's a 5/6M talent in my book, at this point of his career. It's the very beginning, he's still a questionmark, and obviously too early to rule him out. But a big questionmark.
The difference here is hype. 17 yr Brazilian kid, wearing n. 10 for Brazil, the youngest player of the squad and at the same time a starter in a U20 South American Cup (wasn't called for the U20 World Cup and people don't really realize that), playing as a classic n. 10, with a couple assists on that tournament, stand out performer (in a very poor Brazilian team). It was that sole competition, around 4 games, that brought all the hype.
Then what do you know? Barcelona is all over him.
Is this a retarded signing? For Roma it is totally uncalled for, unless this amount of money is not really coming from them, but from agents associated to them. You pay 17M for a 18 yr old Brazilian kid with not more than 25 professional games only if he's an absolute phenomenon, out of this world. He's not.
Would it be a decent investment for 1/3 of the price? Yes it would. It's a decent talent.
But the kid still haven't found his position on the pitch, and is very green. Very far from any possibility of being part of Roma's squad. And you don't pay 17M for that. He's still adapting to professional play in Brazil. Nevermind in Italy.
So I say - it's the hype in that South American U20 competition 1 year ago, those 4 or 5 games. He was a standout in probably 2 or 3 of them with assists, in a bad Brazilian team composed of players older than him.
That generated buzz, Barcelona payed to have priority not only over him, but over 2 other Fluminense kids - Kenedy and Marlon - and from there it's only a small step till other big clubs follow suit.
The funny thing is, Kenedy was sold for 9M, Gerson for 15/17M, but Marlon, the left footed CB, the cheapest of them, less hyped one, is the one I think has the most chance to become a real force at his position.
- - - Updated - - -
Also, what allowed him to be very successful as an AM in the youth ranks is his strength. It's natural and bigger than the average kid, it allowed him to suceed at that position despite lacking agility/pace.
Now at the pros that advantage is gone. He's struggling at Fluminense as an AM or right winger. If he's loaned out to a Bologna and they insist on that position, he will fail hard.
But I see good potential as a LCM, exactly Pogba's position. In a 3 mdifield, he could become a great player in there, IF he develops stamina / awareness / defending. If Roma fails to see that and insists on the AM position, it will get ugly. But as LCM he could be great in a few years.