Global Financial Crisis (4 Viewers)

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,638
What is U3 unemployment? You keep on mentioning it and I have no clue what so ever regarding it.
From an earlier post. Quick summation that hits the major point.

I bet that unemployment figure provided by the EU is the equivalent of U-3 unemployment here in the US. This number does not tell the whole story as it does not count folks "out of the labor force," which include people that have given up looking for work. After six months, folks who can't find work are taken out of the "labor force" by the government. U-6 unemployment is a better way of looking at this matter as it includes all people who cannot find full-time work.

So the unemployment rate here in the US is really ~17%. In Europe it's probably close to that as well.
 

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Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,638
This is one of the best posts I have ever seen. It is a retort to the jackass Keynesian economist Paul Krugman who wrote a blog on Greece.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/12/are-we-greece/

Putting in context this latest attempt to deny that the US will suffer the progressive-Keynesian disaster now befalling Greece, 2010 was supposed to be the year of Keynesian triumph, where Obama's government did as Dr. Krugman urged to make the economy march towards prosperity. All that was needed was to take economic resources from the discipline of markets and give them to politicians.

Keynesian ideology is simple. It must be, as it considers only short-term events in a closed economy having an economically ignorant population. If consumers won't spend, politicians take their money and spend it for them. If businesses won't invest, politicians take their money and invest it for them.

And as an additional benefit, we get "social justice", Dr. Krugman told us four months ago in his editorial "Learning from Europe".

http://www.nytimes.com...

Sure, we lose some growth, innovation, and jobs. But everyone will have "free health care" and a house via Fannie or Freddie. We will set aside bankruptcy rules to reward Obama voters, start trade wars with the same goal, and ensure that Obama's Wall Street cronies do not lose a dime betting on socialism.

Any rational individual knows that this is unsustainable. With "settled economics" reinforcing their intrinsic quest for power, Keynes leaves politicians with no remaining reason NOT to distribute candy. Free insurance for kids until 27 (Obamacare)! Retirement at age 53 (Greece)! Unemployment benefits for 98 months! Why not? Keynes says this is all "good for the economy."

Unlike governments, rational people consider the long term and act if they see Keynesians coming to take away their money and inflate what is left behind. Keynes retorted: "In the long run, we are all dead!" Keynesians think this retort exquisitely dispatches their critics. Indeed, Dr. Krugman posts collections of such "exquisite" retorts and insults.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com...

Krugman bloggers like “Mika” are not satisfied to see Dr. Krugman only insult apostates; he also wants to silence them:

http://community.nytimes.com...

Such Stalinism might be the only way to save Keynes and “progressivism”; if the truth comes out, progressives and Keynesians will be shown to have been fools. After all, in 2008, just two years before he told us to learn "justice" from Europe, Dr. Krugman pronounced Europe "the comeback continent".

http://www.nytimes.com...

But Europe is not a "comeback continent". It is a "bailout continent". Keynes plus progressivism does not equal stability, security, or social justice.

And it is clear why. The progressive state, hobbled by the misallocation of resources intrinsic to politics, with its low growth, low innovation, and high unemployment, will collapse (in the long run). Like Fannie and Freddie. Chrysler and GM. Like Wall Street, when they bet on Greece, Fannie and Freddie.

So progressivism requires something called "bailouts". In 2009, the OECD spent trillions on bailouts and stimuli. In 2010, a trillion more.

Now, everyone needs bailouts. Even the bail-outers.

Germany, for example, will have 61% of its population over age 60 in 30 years. Germany will need the resources it is now using to bail out "socially just" Greece to itself avoid default. Will Germany then turn to the US?

And who will bail out the US, already with $200,000 in unfunded liabilities per citizen and debt at 92.6% of projected 2010 GDP, according to the IMF? After we give $50 billion more to Greece, and unknown sums to Portugal, Spain, and California. All in the hope of postponing by a year the default inherent in progressive politics and Keynesian ideology.

To avoid default, the US will try to raise taxes on everyone, including those making less than $250,000. Even 40% will not be enough, however, after tax increases give the US chronic unemployment, low productivity, and other symptoms of Eurosclerosis. Thus, the US will still default. If you are less than 50, you will never see your "safe" (= "not privatized") Social Security, Medicare, or "free health care". The government will not deliver it because the government will not be able to.

Like Greece.
:delpiero:

I've personally come to the conclusion that Krugman wants to destroy the United States. That's the only way his economics make any fucking sense.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,638
Sarkozy threatens to pull France out of Euro currency group
SAPA-AFP Published: 2010/05/14 11:04:22 AM

French President Nicolas Sarkozy threatened to pull his country out of the euro currency group to force Germany to help Greece with its debt crisis, El Pais newspaper reported Friday, quoting Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

Sarkozy made the threat at a Brussels summit of EU leaders last Friday that sealed a rescue package, Zapatero told a meeting with leaders of his Socialist Party on Wednesday, the newspaper reported.

Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, has been the most reluctant euro nation to help the Greek government.

However the French president demanded “a commitment by everyone, for everyone to help Greece, each according to his means or France would reexamine its situation in the euro,” Zapatero was quoted as saying.

The Brussels summit finally agreed a 110-billion-euro (140-billion-dollar) three-year package of loans and credit guarantees for Greece, which had risked defaulting on its huge debts.

“France, Italy and Spain put up a common front against Germany and Sarkozy went so far as to threaten to break the traditional Franco-German axis,” according to another person at the meeting. France and Germany are traditionally considered the central motor of EU initiatives.

Spain and Portugal also face major debt problems and Zapatero announced new austerity measures on Wednesday.

El Pais said the Spanish leader has used increasingly dramatic rhetoric in recent days to convince his party of the gravity of the crisis facing the euro.

_____________________

Might as well end the EU right now.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,638
If the price holds and confirms below the red horizontal support line, that is not good news for the Euro. There isn't any "support" below here.
 

JBF

اختك يا زمن
Aug 5, 2006
18,451
Germany are being a bitch about all the shit Greece is going through ATM, France's move is understandable.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,638
Greece should NOT be bailed out, and neither should the Eurozone bankers. But Greece IS NOT going to be bailed out, but rather the Eurozone bankers will be, at the expense of us.

All of these bailouts need to stop as they DO NOT WORK AND NEVER HAVE.

After all the jawboning about defending the Euro through opening swap lines and dishing out bailouts, the currency only appreciated in value for 12 HOURS, then continued on with its slip-n-slide down against other currencies.

Just 12 hours of support? The market figured out this shit will not work even quicker than expected. And that's really bad news for the EU.
 

JBF

اختك يا زمن
Aug 5, 2006
18,451
Huge cuts in welfare spending are being proposed in California as the state struggles with a budget deficit of $19bn.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said the state had no choice but to eliminate spending programmes that help more than one million poor people.


The governor and his Republican colleagues refuse to raise taxes.

Democrats say they will not agree to a budget that protects tax breaks for business at the expense of child care.

'Shaking the tree'


Just as governments in countries hit by recession have been cutting welfare spending, so California's governor has proposed the same for a state with the 8th largest economy in the world and a looming budget deficit of $19bn.

Some social programmes have already been cut.

Now Mr Schwarzenegger wants to eliminate a scheme that helps more than a million people looking or training for work.

With unemployment still above the US average and tax revenues last month $3bn lower than hoped, he said California had no choice.

The Republicans argue that raising taxes would stifle private sector job creation and slow any economic recovery.

Mr Schwarzenegger said: "California no longer has low-hanging fruit. As a matter of fact, we don't have any medium-hanging fruit. We also don't have high-hanging fruit.

"We literally have to take the ladder from the tree and shake the whole tree."

California's constitution requires its budget to be approved by a two-thirds majority of lawmakers.

They are often gridlocked and the state's budget problems mount up.

BBC

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Looks like Kyle has to find a new way to make a living :p
 

JBF

اختك يا زمن
Aug 5, 2006
18,451
The fact that they vote an action movie actor to become their governor is laughable to say the least.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,638
US Equities still under a lot of pressure. The Euro was rallying earlier today but now it has turned south, which has added selling pressure to our stock market.

So much volatility, I love it.
 

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JBF

اختك يا زمن
Aug 5, 2006
18,451
That is good news for every consumer, unless he comes from a country that exports that shit and he actually gets a profit. Which rarely/never is the case.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,638
Spanish debt auction comes close to failure

By David Oakley

Published: May 18 2010 18:09 | Last updated: May 18 2010 18:09

Spain came close to its first debt auction failure on Tuesday, highlighting the funding problems for weaker eurozone economies.

The government’s difficulties in selling €6.44bn ($7.96bn) in one-year and 18-month bills sparked worries over its 10-year debt auction on Thursday.

Madrid had planned to issue €8bn, but only just attracted that amount of bids, with yields at record highs. This prompted debt managers to reduce the size of the sale by €1.56bn. Normally a government bill auction would be covered at least 1.5 times.

Steven Major, head of fixed income at HSBC, said: “The Spanish auction was very disappointing and does not bode well for further issuance. It’s becoming more apparent just how difficult it is for Spain, which is a big worry so soon after the launch of the international rescue package.

“It suggests the European Central Bank may have to buy a lot more bonds than it first thought to prop up some of the peripheral eurozone bond markets.”

The ECB has so far bought €16.5bn in government bonds, mainly short-dated Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt. Some analysts say the central bank may have to buy up to €600bn to maintain stability in the markets.

Spain’s problems contrasted with successful auctions of Dutch and Irish bonds. The Dutch sold €5bn of 30-year bonds in one hour. The Irish sold €1.5bn in four-year and 10-year bonds, both more than three times covered.

The Dutch have relatively healthy public finances and are rated triple A while the Irish have convinced the markets they can push through tough austerity measures.

It shows how investors are now differentiating, not just between core eurozone countries, but between the peripheral countries of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy.

Italy successfully sold five-year and 15-year debt last Thursday with relatively low yields. Most investors remain sanguine about the country’s public finances.

Portugal also successfully sold short-term debt last Wednesday, although this was partly helped by the ECB shoring up the markets early last week.


Financial Times

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Uhhh, that's not close to failure. That IS failure. A failed bond auction. When bids only came in for 80% of the debt they were offering, that is a failed auction.

The EU is cooked.
 

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