Global Financial Crisis (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter Dostoevsky
- Start date
There is a reason why the chances of Germany bailing out Greece are slim. Why? Because if they bail them out, they're going to have to do the same with Italy, Spain, Ireland and every other country that has default worries. Merkel would need unanimous consent to bail out Greece and if she tries to do it her political career in Germany would be over because the Germans won't have it.
Just look at the credit default swap market for Greece and Ireland. The latter is following the same path upward, and a Greek default could potentially cause more trouble for nations like Ireland. The Ireland CDS rose 12 basis points to 172 yesterday based solely on the Greek worries, so these countries are not safe. Once Greek is fully cooked the attention will be shifted elsewhere and they will get hit if they don't address their deficit issues.
But yeah, Ireland is safe.
Just look at the credit default swap market for Greece and Ireland. The latter is following the same path upward, and a Greek default could potentially cause more trouble for nations like Ireland. The Ireland CDS rose 12 basis points to 172 yesterday based solely on the Greek worries, so these countries are not safe. Once Greek is fully cooked the attention will be shifted elsewhere and they will get hit if they don't address their deficit issues.
But yeah, Ireland is safe.
There is a reason why the chances of Germany bailing out Greece are slim. Why? Because if they bail them out, they're going to have to do the same with Italy, Spain, Ireland and every other country that has default worries. Merkel would need unanimous consent to bail out Greece and if she tries to do it her political career in Germany would be over because the Germans won't have it.
Just look at the credit default swap market for Greece and Ireland. The latter is following the same path upward, and a Greek default could potentially cause more trouble for nations like Ireland. The Ireland CDS rose 12 basis points to 172 yesterday based solely on the Greek worries, so these countries are not safe. Once Greek is fully cooked the attention will be shifted elsewhere and they will get hit if they don't address their deficit issues.
But yeah, Ireland is safe.
Just look at the credit default swap market for Greece and Ireland. The latter is following the same path upward, and a Greek default could potentially cause more trouble for nations like Ireland. The Ireland CDS rose 12 basis points to 172 yesterday based solely on the Greek worries, so these countries are not safe. Once Greek is fully cooked the attention will be shifted elsewhere and they will get hit if they don't address their deficit issues.
But yeah, Ireland is safe.
Certainly international bodies are very worried about are propects and the steps our government is talking, our creidt rating is super shit too...
int: when he's forced to emigrate.
If you don't wanted a ceremonial wager then fine cop out, I'm an unemployed stundet where exactly am I going to get money to invest in more shares?
I'm trying to insult you here, put you are completely ignorant of the internal workings of the Irish Economy and the strategy to restart it, as I am with yours, I know basic theory, you know extensive theory, but neither of us engages with the others economy on a day to day basis.
But I'll wager you €100 as a man right here right now.
Edit: obvioulsy it can't be a 'forever bet' because we could default in 2356 or something.
I'm trying to insult you here, put you are completely ignorant of the internal workings of the Irish Economy and the strategy to restart it, as I am with yours, I know basic theory, you know extensive theory, but neither of us engages with the others economy on a day to day basis.
But I'll wager you €100 as a man right here right now.
Edit: obvioulsy it can't be a 'forever bet' because we could default in 2356 or something.
I know how to interpret Credit Default Swaps and sovereign default risk. That topic is the same for Greece, the US, Ireland or whatever country you pick from a hat. And your country has done nothing to truly address it.
Considering how knowledgeable you are, you have nothing to risk.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm genuiely interested in hearing what sollution you'd recommed for Ireland independent of the above discusion as there is considerable debate about it here also.
Ok here's the latest, Greece just got an emergency loan worth 2 billion. Yet there's a catch, an almost 5% interest rate will be exercised there.
And in total Greece is asking for 51 billion for this year while the EU is only prepared to pay 40 billion divided over the course of 3 years.
To sum up, the EU is a joke.
And in total Greece is asking for 51 billion for this year while the EU is only prepared to pay 40 billion divided over the course of 3 years.
To sum up, the EU is a joke.
New-home sales surge 27% to 411,000 pace
PROVIDED BY MarketWatch - 10:01 AM 04/23/2010
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Boosted by a soon-to-expire tax break, low mortgage rates and favorable weather, sales of new homes surged 27% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000 after hitting a record low in February, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.
It was the largest percentage gain in sales since April 1963, the government said. It was the highest sales pace since July, and much stronger than the 335,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
Sales in December, January and February were revised higher. In February, sales were at a 324,000 annualized pace, revised up from 308,000. It's still the lowest on record, dating to 1963.
Sales are up 24% compared with March 2009.
Government statisticians have low confidence in the monthly report, which is subject to large revisions, and large sampling and other statistical errors.
In most months, the government isn't sure whether sales rose or fell. The standard error in March, for instance, was plus or minus 21.1%. Read the full government report.
The government says it can take up to five months to establish a statistically significant trend in sales. Over the past five months, sales have been on a 358,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, up from 355,000 in the five-month interval through February.
Sales of new homes had fallen four months in a row before March's surprising boom. A federal tax credit for home buyers that expires soon seemed to have little impact on sales until March.
In order to qualify for the credit, a buyer must sign a sales contract before April 30, and must close before June 30. New-home sales are recorded at the time of the contract signing, not the closing, so April's sales figures would be the last to show any impact from the subsidy.
On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes rose 6.8% in March. Existing-home sales are recorded at the time of closing.
Housing, which led the economy into recession, seems to be the last sector to recover. Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said, "We have yet to see evidence of a sustained recovery in the housing market."
Policy makers and investors will be watching the housing data closely over the next few months to see if the market can continue March's gains even after the tax credit expires and federal support for low mortgage rates subsides.
Details
Inventories of unsold homes fell by 5,000, or 2.1%, to 228,000, the lowest in 39 years. At the March sales pace, it would take 6.7 months to sell off the inventory. That's the lowest months' inventory since December 2006.
Home builders have been slashing their inventory of unsold homes for more than a year. The number of homes for sale that are under construction fell to a record low of 100,000.
Builders have cut back on production of new homes, but they still face headwinds from unsold existing-homes as foreclosures continue to mount up.
If a home isn't sold before it's finished, it's taking a record 14.4 months to sell it after completion -- a reflection of the mismatch between more expensively priced homes in the inventory and lower-priced homes that have been selling.
The median sales price of a new home sold in March was $214,000, up 4.3% compared with a year earlier. Cheaper homes were selling better than expensive ones. Just 12% of homes sold for more than $400,000.
Sales were up in all four regions: up 36% in the Northeast, up 4% in the Midwest, up 44% in the South and up 6% in the West, the government's data showed.
WUHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAA
PROVIDED BY MarketWatch - 10:01 AM 04/23/2010
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Boosted by a soon-to-expire tax break, low mortgage rates and favorable weather, sales of new homes surged 27% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000 after hitting a record low in February, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.
It was the largest percentage gain in sales since April 1963, the government said. It was the highest sales pace since July, and much stronger than the 335,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
Sales in December, January and February were revised higher. In February, sales were at a 324,000 annualized pace, revised up from 308,000. It's still the lowest on record, dating to 1963.
Sales are up 24% compared with March 2009.
Government statisticians have low confidence in the monthly report, which is subject to large revisions, and large sampling and other statistical errors.
In most months, the government isn't sure whether sales rose or fell. The standard error in March, for instance, was plus or minus 21.1%. Read the full government report.
The government says it can take up to five months to establish a statistically significant trend in sales. Over the past five months, sales have been on a 358,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, up from 355,000 in the five-month interval through February.
Sales of new homes had fallen four months in a row before March's surprising boom. A federal tax credit for home buyers that expires soon seemed to have little impact on sales until March.
In order to qualify for the credit, a buyer must sign a sales contract before April 30, and must close before June 30. New-home sales are recorded at the time of the contract signing, not the closing, so April's sales figures would be the last to show any impact from the subsidy.
On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes rose 6.8% in March. Existing-home sales are recorded at the time of closing.
Housing, which led the economy into recession, seems to be the last sector to recover. Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said, "We have yet to see evidence of a sustained recovery in the housing market."
Policy makers and investors will be watching the housing data closely over the next few months to see if the market can continue March's gains even after the tax credit expires and federal support for low mortgage rates subsides.
Details
Inventories of unsold homes fell by 5,000, or 2.1%, to 228,000, the lowest in 39 years. At the March sales pace, it would take 6.7 months to sell off the inventory. That's the lowest months' inventory since December 2006.
Home builders have been slashing their inventory of unsold homes for more than a year. The number of homes for sale that are under construction fell to a record low of 100,000.
Builders have cut back on production of new homes, but they still face headwinds from unsold existing-homes as foreclosures continue to mount up.
If a home isn't sold before it's finished, it's taking a record 14.4 months to sell it after completion -- a reflection of the mismatch between more expensively priced homes in the inventory and lower-priced homes that have been selling.
The median sales price of a new home sold in March was $214,000, up 4.3% compared with a year earlier. Cheaper homes were selling better than expensive ones. Just 12% of homes sold for more than $400,000.
Sales were up in all four regions: up 36% in the Northeast, up 4% in the Midwest, up 44% in the South and up 6% in the West, the government's data showed.
WUHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAA
