You're right, but your percentages are too low. Going by the bookmakers, Italy will manage to get a win or a draw around 67% of the times, Belgium will get a win or a draw 80% of the times and Turkey will get a win or a draw 60% of the times. The odds of those three results all going Albania's way is around 33% (0,67*0,80*0,60). And that's just the most likely scenario. Adding the unlikely ones, I guess we're closer to 40% (I'm too lazy to do the math though). Still tough though. 
When Italy doesn't need pts, Italy doesn't get points, which means that 33% for Ireland to win is too low. Irish win is at least 50%. As for Czech Republic vs Turkey, it's a match where the draw is a defeat and both will be going full force for the win. The Turks even need at least a win by 2 goals. I'd give 49% for a Czech win, 49% to the Turks and only 2% to the draw.
Now count 0,50*0,80*0,51 and you get my 20%
Or add the unlikely and you'll get to 25% or so.
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