Ok, at first I thought this was a total joke and I still don’t think its going to happen. However, I thought its worth reminding everyone that I looked at the numbers and it IS possible to achieve provided we sell Dybala. Let me illustrate.
So first, lets work under the assumption that we can accomplish the transfer of Ronaldo for a fee of EU130m and sign Ronaldo on a 4 year contract worth EU30m (NET) per year – which translates to EU60m gross (he earns 21m net at Madrid).
So what is his annual cost? Annual amortization is 33m + 60m in wages = 93m per year. Ouch. Remember that Juve’s FY18 Revenue is forecast to be around 460m – i.e 20% of total revenue.
Now, in order to balance the books, we could look at selling Dybala.
Lets assume for now that his transfer fee is 130m (given he is much younger). His amortized book value is only 16m (as we signed him for 40m 3 years ago on a 5 year contract). His recently re-negotiated wages are around 7.5m a year NET – or 15m gross. By selling Dybala we would book a profit of EU114m + save 8m in annual amortization and 15m in gross wages = EU137m in the first year and 23m in the following year. This is a far bigger positive financial impact than selling Pogba.
So a SELL Dybala, BUY Ronaldo scenario would result in a net BENEFIT in FY19 of EU44m and a net COST of EU70m in Year 2. The net cost would equate to 15% of projected FY19 Revenue.
Now the question that is yet to be answered is, how much ADDITIONAL revenue would Ronaldo himself bring to Juventus? My guess is at least 10%. I mean, if we were to sell 1m CR7 Juve shirts a year and we make EU10-20 a shirt in royalties, that could be 15m or 3% of revenue just there – not to mention ticket sales and ultimately TV rights and sponsorship deals.
Of course there are other scenarios but while Ronaldo is getting older, I am confident he will be playing at an extreme level up until the end of his contract. Del Piero, for reference left Juventus at the age of 37. Physically I think Ronaldo is in a different league.
Dybala has been rumored to leave for quite some time and he himself has told Allegri he wants to play for just 1 more year with us – that is hardly a show of commitment.
Of course the bigger philosophical question is: Relying so much on one player is always risky and he would be getting paid easily double the next largest earner and the effect on the dressing room would need to be considered. BUT, in the champions league if you want a player to make a difference – there is no better – period.