Yeah, you're right. I was using estimates for winning CL/EL rather doing the raw calcs. By that account England would still have about 0.8 points ahead of Italy after this season.
Yeah, Italy has a chance to overtake England next season, but in my original post I was going with the more possible outcome, which is winning that third place after 2 seasons. I think that after this season (and after discounting 10/11) Italy will be some 2/2,5 points behind England and some 3,5/4 points behind Germany. I doubt that Italy will have another superior season next year. I find it more likely (after also discounting season 11/12) that it can happen in two years. For that to happen, Italy will need to do just as good as one of Germany/England in the next 2 years.
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This is what I'm saying...
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2017.html
These are the standings for the last three seasons. The Italians only need a draw this year and they'll be better than England. They might even surpass Germany. That means that they "only" need to do just as well, or even slightly worse, than one of these two in the next two seasons, and they get the third place back.
It's possible Italy to overtake them by the end of next season, but for this to happen the Italians will again have to do (much) better than one of Germany/England. It's possible, but not very probable.