Bretton Woods II: A New World Financial Order (1 Viewer)

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
115,986
#1
And perhaps the debasement of various currencies?

For all those who are unfamiliar with Bretton Woods I, this was a monetary management conference between industrial states that took place after the end of World War II. The Bretton Woods Agreements formed obligations for each nation to adopt a monetary policy that maintained the exchange rate of its currency within a fixed value, among other various implications. This agreement, which took place in Bretton Woods, New Jersey, established the system where the US Dollar became the world's reserve currency.

After about 64 years under the current system, the current global financial crisis has arisen, and now there will be a similar meeting to Bretton Woods I that will begin on Saturday the 15th of November, 2008. G20 countries, along with China, will be participating in this meeting.

There is speculation filtering around the financial community that, considering the United States has an unsustainable current account deficit while continuing to inflate the money supply, the world will no longer use the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency. Such a decision does make sense considering the amount of debt the country owes. Moreover, the US may decide to debase (intentionally lower the value of) the US dollar in an effort to decrease the amount of debt the government owes. For instance, Germany decided to debase its currency after World War I to combat the enormous amount of reparations the nation had to pay.

If any of this does happen, it will happen fast, as in overnight. And if it does happen, be ready for public outrage considering these possibilities are NEVER discussed on any major news or financial news network in the US. It will be interesting to see what the nations decide upon, but either way, the US will have to give up one thing or another in this new agreement.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/09/george-bush-washington-summit

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_II
 

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Red

-------
Moderator
Nov 26, 2006
47,024
#3
So, if it happened, this debasing could radically change the value of currencies in relation to each other?

And what would be the most likely replacement for the Dollar as the reserve currency? The Euro?
 
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Bjerknes

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
115,986
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #6
    So, if it happened, this debasing could radically change the value of currencies in relation to each other?

    And what would be the most likely replacement for the Dollar as the reserve currency? The Euro?
    Exchange rates would be all over the place if a debasing would occur, that's for sure.

    In terms of a new reserve currency, I don't think they necessarily need to have one if they go back to some commodity-backed currency standard. But if the USD will be dumped as the reserve currency, I don't think the Euro would be adopted because Europe has similar problems that we do. So then I suppose the new reserve currency would be the Chinese Yuan considering they have tons of reserves as we speak now.

    But this is anybody's guess.
     

    jukazem

    Senior Member
    Feb 10, 2007
    4,967
    #8
    It won't be very boring if people in the US awake one day and find out the dollar is now worth 50 cents. :faq1:
    50 cents of what? I thought USD is doing great against the GBP, EUR and most other currencies. Are you talking about the purchasing power or what..?

    Incidentally, I have been trying a forex game since yesterday and have no clue how to beat the market. GBP-USD has been going down all day. Is this the effect of the BOE interest rate cuts ,which was days back, or something else?
     
    OP
    Bjerknes

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    115,986
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  • Thread Starter #9
    50 cents of what? I thought USD is doing great against the GBP, EUR and most other currencies. Are you talking about the purchasing power or what..?

    Incidentally, I have been trying a forex game since yesterday and have no clue how to beat the market. GBP-USD has been going down all day. Is this the effect of the BOE interest rate cuts ,which was days back, or something else?
    The reason why the USD has rallied recently is due to various reasons. The key reason, and potentially the most important key, is that banks are struggling to pay off existing debt in a process called deleveraging. To pay off debt, these banks will do a number of things to raise capital, such as cover shorts and pull money out of various markets. The banks need hard paper money to repay those so debts. Therefore, there is a short term demand for US notes in high quantities, not only by US banks but also other banks around the world. Secondly, the USD could be rallying because people are putting their money into the paper markets instead of equities. I believe it's more of the former than latter.

    Many experts believe this rally will be short-lived and once the deleveraging process is done the USD will fall. It could actually fall pretty hard considering that the FED continues to inflate the money supply, but some are trying to look past that fact.

    The BOE cutting rates means the GBP will fall in value naturally. So indeed, that's why the GBP/USD is falling, the rate cut and "strong" (weak) dollar.

    I play the FOREX markets as well, but I use market technicals much more than news. It tends to yield much more consistency.
     

    jukazem

    Senior Member
    Feb 10, 2007
    4,967
    #10
    :thumbs: Good stuff!

    USD will fall you say, I thought so as well. But the other economies are doing bad as well, so unless US is doing poorly compared to others it shouldn't fall too much, if it does.


    I play the FOREX markets as well, but I use market technicals much more than news. It tends to yield much more consistency.
    There is just too much information in news I guess, so I'll try techincals as well. I have been youtubing to learn market technicals. Videoes from a certain 'informed trades' channel looked interesting to me. Any opinion on that.
     
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    Bjerknes

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    115,986
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  • Thread Starter #11
    :thumbs: Good stuff!

    USD will fall you say, I thought so as well. But the other economies are doing bad as well, so unless US is doing poorly compared to others it shouldn't fall too much, if it does.
    Indeed, other economies are having serious problems as well. But the fact remains that the possible dollar problem really stems from the amount of debt the US propagates throughout the whole global economy, as well as the fact that the US dollar has flooded the market while the country has such a formidable trade deficit. Other competing nations don't nearly have as much debt as we do, so that really is going to be problematic for us. It's not sustainable.

    There is just too much information in news I guess, so I'll try techincals as well. I have been youtubing to learn market technicals. Videoes from a certain 'informed trades' channel looked interesting to me. Any opinion on that.
    I learned a lot about the technicals through youtube and also just reading online. I always go with a candlestick chart fitted with Bollinger bands along with the beloved MACD Signal and RSI underneath, as those give you more insight than any news will in my opinion. MACD with the histogram is fucking sick.
     
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    Bjerknes

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    115,986
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  • Thread Starter #17
    Andy, this is Juventuz Forum :D



    but I must say that you always have a quality posts :)
    Yes, but it is the off-topic Juventuz forum...

    And thanks. :)

    This regards the G20 meeting? Or is this strictly domestic?
    Not sure what you mean by domestic because the nations are meeting to figure out what needs to be changed regarding the world financial system.
     

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