Is Milik even known for his freekicks?
analysis from April 2021:
Code:
https://www.facebook.com/ofutbolustatystycznie/posts/pfbid0jxAJWqwJvNGEB9uuAPjKyiDodPpiw1dhDgLg5XsapRWq47NtU12eZM2g6F5tcLe1l?__cft__[0]=AZUYLIpTHwFMdz16g4lJDkscNOLKG7OHRGaCPkbRmj9KXgv8X9zK0iJ1l1V6nPYgNLQkF-tsgQ_kKeD3TtPTseuADzFcfgQqt2j_vgeyaXmegD4h6spRfg4JOad560luIEE&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R
"NOTE: This Pole is the best free kick performer in the whole world! Check it out!"
Good clickbait? I've always wanted to try it.
And now in all seriousness. I invite you to a long, but full of tasty charts, numbers and statistical tests analysis of free kicks, and in it, among other things:
- who shoots most often from FKs?
- who is the most effective FK taker?
- Who shoots most often at the wall?
(...)
That is, almost everything you would like to know about freekicks, or even what you didn't know you wanted to know yet.
Data from Understat.com for the top 5 leagues for the period from the 2015/16 season to April 5, 2021, which is more than 5.5 seasons. The analysis includes only direct shots from FKs, and there were exactly 11,705 of them. You can find most of the information in the charts, but I really encourage you to read the commentary, because the text will give you a better understanding of the data presented.
Here we go!
Then what percentage of FKs ends in a goal?
6.07% end in a goal, but what I found most interesting, an additional 3.04% with a post or crossbar! Almost perfectly, 1/3 of the FKs are blocked (as I understand it, they go into the wall), and another 1/3 are missed. 24% are defended by the goalkeeper. In the chart you will also find the average xG (theoretical probability of scoring a goal). Of course, among the categories listed, it is the goals that have the highest xG, that is, they result from the best situations on average.
Let's move on to the most important. Who in this world (top 5 leagues) shoots free-kicks the best? Messi? Ronaldo? Dybala? Lewandowski? Let's check the numbers!
The most goals were scored and by far Leo Messi. I didn't realize how he dominated the free-kicks. He has scored 25 goals directly from free kicks in the league since the start of the 2015/16 season. The next places are probably not obvious: James Ward-Prowse and Daniel Parejo with 10 each, Miralem Pjanic and Paulo Dybala with 9. Just look at the number of shots taken. Here Messi definitely reigns supreme, with as many as 237 shots. Far behind him is Cristiano Ronaldo with 107 shots. No one else exceeded a hundred, so on the one hand it's not surprising that Messi scored the most goals. On the other hand, however, how many of those FKs were after fouls on him? I haven't found such data, but we can guess that a lot.
In that case, do we already know who shoots free-kicks best? The absolute number of goals is one thing, but I'm honestly more interested in efficiency in percentage terms. So I thought it would be interesting to see what percentage of FK shots the best players finish with a goal. With that said, with such statistics you always need some minimum threshold of shots to reliably assess skills. Because otherwise we have such flowers as Claudio Pizarro and 13 other players who have 100% efficiency from FKs, because .... they took only 1, but what an effective shot. So I thought for a while and decided that I would check all the players who made more than 10 shots from FKs. This left me with 304 of the original 1,444 FKs shot performers. Who are you betting on? Which player in the top 5 leagues who attempted more than 10 free shots has the highest percentage efficiency? Without yet knowing who is being referred to, are you able to agree with the statement that such a player is the most effective free throw performer in the world?
Then take a deep breath, because my clickbait like a legend had a grain of truth in it (and not so small). Well, the most effective free kick shooter was Arek Milik. 3 goals in 11 attempts (27.27%). He was followed by Paco Alcacer (3/13, or 23.08%) and David Silva and Boschilia (both 3/15, or 20%). 3 goals is not enough? Then let's compare it to other players, because it's an interesting number. Robert Lewandowski and Cristiano Ronaldo also scored 3 goals. Lewy needed 26 attempts (11.54%, well above average), and Cristiano Ronaldo needed 107 shots (2.8%). I remind you that the average efficiency is about 6.07%. You can laugh at Milik, but this boy's numbers can defend. Let's go back to the FKs.
I chose the minimum threshold of more than 10 shots arbitrarily. If we look at players with more than 25 shots we are left with 117 players, and the best of them is Antoine Griezmann (7/36, or 19.44%), followed by Philippe Coutinho (5/30, or 16.67%), Iago Aspas (7/42, or 16.67%), Paulo Dybala (9/57, or 15.97%). Do you understand what is going on there in that Barcelona? Who doesn't come up is to be feared. Messi, Griezmann, Coutinho (if he plays, of course). And at Juve? The completely ineffective Ronaldo comes up, and Dybala does not play, who even for the FKs alone could be useful. Out of curiosities, I still have to mention Josip Brekalo, who scored 3 FKs on only 4 attempts, or a whopping 75%.
(...)
You're probably getting a little tired of this text by now, but I have a few more highlights. In terms of clubs, Barcelona took the most shots (299) and scored the most goals (28). 17 goals were scored by Juve (little credit to Ronaldo), and 15 each by PSG and Lyon. Union Berlin boasted the best efficiency (2/13 or 15.38%) against Barcelona's 9.36%. Among the teams with more than 50 shots, the most efficient are Chievo and Hamburger SV (both 6/60) and Atletico (9/90) with 10%.
They were the most efficient, now let's get a little bullied about the worst. There are a whole bunch of players who didn't score a goal from a free kick. How to choose the worst one? In my opinion, it is the one who has attempted the most, and that is Jonathan Viera (who plays for Las Palmas in La Liga) with 48 attempts (!!!) But it is only further on that it is interesting:
2nd Harry Kane 0/40
3rd Andy Delort 0/36
4th Gareth Bale 0/35
5th Joaquin 0/32
5. Hatem Ben Arfa 0/32
WOW, some familiar names.
But Joaquin is a particularly cool guy, as he took 32 shots, didn't score a goal, and hit the post or crossbar 5 times from FK! and this is generally the second highest score together with Kevin De Bruyne (5 posts/crossbars out of 54 shots), Marcos Alonso (37 shots) and Iago Aspas (42 attempts). The most times the frame of the goal has been knocked around by Messi, with 9, but this is only 3.8% of shots against Joaquin's 15.62%.
At the very end, another moment of Ronaldo abuse. What do you think of when Ronaldo goes up for a FK? Yes, I too expect a shot at the wall. Admittedly, Messi is the one with the most blocked FKs (66), but this represents only 27.85% of his attempts, lower than the average, which is almost perfectly 33.3%. Ronaldo is in second place with 59 blocked shots, but an incredible percentage of 55.14%. The numbers don't lie, he should not take the FKs. Although there are also better in this aspect. Such Szabolcs Huszti shot 5 attempts and all blocked. You will say that this is some antonym. So further Kai Havertz, Christian Benteke and Ciro Immobile each had 3 shots and also all blocked. Mesut Özil, on the other hand, had 12 shots blocked out of 15 attempts, a whopping 80% on an already significant number of shots.
That would be about it when it comes to FKs. If you made it all the way here, thank you very much, because I put some heart into it. But the topic of free throws has always seemed interesting to me. I would really like this text to reach as many people as possible who might be interested. So if you liked this analysis, please leave a like, comment and send to your friends or to some football group you follow. Thanks in advance!
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