Stock Market (83 Viewers)

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
117,140
SOXL up another 10% today. Trump seems very focused on the chips, probably because the AI and Oracle guys are in his ear. It's way overextended though.

NVDA has earnings on May 26th. I can see this thing being pumped and then dumped with all the volatility.

- - - Updated - - -

All these gap ups on NDVA before earnings, might have to buy some lotto puts on it.
 
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Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
117,140
Two days in a row GOOG rockets higher at open and then sucks donkey balls the first of the day. This is getting fucking annoying. Just fucking send it to 185 already.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
117,140
It's hard enough to be correct in the markets. Having to time it perfectly too? Forgettaboutit
You can buy far out options which lowers risk. Definitely don't ever buy options that have a weekly expiry unless it's a hedge or a lotto. Far dated options are usually expensive but if you have them 1.5 years out and you buy after a major dip it's not a bad strategy.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
117,140
Bought TSLA 6/20 $400 calls and HOOD 7/18 $80 calls on Friday. I'm hoping the latter can retest the ATH after the IPO a few years ago. It's mostly a lotto on the breakout. TSLA had an obvious bull flag setup and consolidated for 8 days before moving higher, just like last time. Worry about there being a shit ton of resistance to fill the gap at 380 though.

Still HODLing my GOOG calls as well.
 

Siamak

╭∩╮( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)╭∩╮
Aug 13, 2013
19,391
I am thinking of making a small investment on a very small scale. I have some money and I plan to buy dollars or gold because the Iran currency is subject to fluctuations and political issues and over time if I buy dollars or gold I will make a profit in the coming months. I just don't know which one to buy dollars or gold? just can't make my mind. My budget is about 2000 dollars.
 

swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
85,040
I am thinking of making a small investment on a very small scale. I have some money and I plan to buy dollars or gold because the Iran currency is subject to fluctuations and political issues and over time if I buy dollars or gold I will make a profit in the coming months. I just don't know which one to buy dollars or gold? just can't make my mind. My budget is about 2000 dollars.
Both are hedges and, IMO, pretty poor investments if they're primary investment. You'd be better off putting $2k in an index fund or ETF: decent upside, but instant diversity to cushion downside risk. If you can access that via an EasyEquities or similar, if you trust them, that could be a solid option.

Now the USD is pretty darn low these days, so speculatively you could be on to something. But it's pretty clear that Trump is not going to let up on the chaos and crazytown for the next 3 1/2 years he's scheduled to be in office. Which means risk and instability and uncertainty. Which means everyone invested in USD is going to want to flee for other currencies/markets because of that risk.

Yes, it's priced low now and there is history for an upside. But you might have to wait at least 4 years to make 11%. Certainly not in "months".

Weird side note. I read an interview of the chief investment office of Vanguard over the weekend:
https://fortune.com/2025/07/24/the-...-says-its-time-to-pivot-away-from-u-s-stocks/
He makes a great case for GTFO of US stocks, let alone dollars. But I like his logic and thing it has real merit and not just a play for the lame writers at Fortune.

Gold is in the same boat as the dollar. It's more a security hedge and pretty poor as a primary investment. While the US craziness will keep gold high, I'm not sure how much higher it realistically has to go. Again, an investment better to counter risk in other investments like equities, bonds, crypto, currencies, etc. And also not something I'd see improve much in months.

Crypto has been riding high again. People love it. I don't trust it for squat, even though I have the tiniest of play investments (that has grown 4x in the past two years). If you have a high risk tolerance, or just want to gamble like you're in Vegas, that's an option. Still, I would only put funny money in it and not anything you're counting on.
 

Siamak

╭∩╮( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)╭∩╮
Aug 13, 2013
19,391
Both are hedges and, IMO, pretty poor investments if they're primary investment. You'd be better off putting $2k in an index fund or ETF: decent upside, but instant diversity to cushion downside risk. If you can access that via an EasyEquities or similar, if you trust them, that could be a solid option.

Now the USD is pretty darn low these days, so speculatively you could be on to something. But it's pretty clear that Trump is not going to let up on the chaos and crazytown for the next 3 1/2 years he's scheduled to be in office. Which means risk and instability and uncertainty. Which means everyone invested in USD is going to want to flee for other currencies/markets because of that risk.

Yes, it's priced low now and there is history for an upside. But you might have to wait at least 4 years to make 11%. Certainly not in "months".

Weird side note. I read an interview of the chief investment office of Vanguard over the weekend:
https://fortune.com/2025/07/24/the-...-says-its-time-to-pivot-away-from-u-s-stocks/
He makes a great case for GTFO of US stocks, let alone dollars. But I like his logic and thing it has real merit and not just a play for the lame writers at Fortune.

Gold is in the same boat as the dollar. It's more a security hedge and pretty poor as a primary investment. While the US craziness will keep gold high, I'm not sure how much higher it realistically has to go. Again, an investment better to counter risk in other investments like equities, bonds, crypto, currencies, etc. And also not something I'd see improve much in months.

Crypto has been riding high again. People love it. I don't trust it for squat, even though I have the tiniest of play investments (that has grown 4x in the past two years). If you have a high risk tolerance, or just want to gamble like you're in Vegas, that's an option. Still, I would only put funny money in it and not anything you're counting on.
Thx for reply, much appreciated.
First let me I tell you forget Crypto! to me Crypto is not a real investment. In fact, it is not subject to anything and its conversion into physical money is almost arbitrary. Of course some people love it! One of my friends always advises me to invest in Tether because it gives profit! But it depends on many insecure methods where you have to trust intermediaries and intermediary sites which has very high risk including fraud.
As for the dollar, it increased by over ten percent in Iran in just two weeks of the Iran-Israel war, and then decreased after the war!!
You definitely have to have the capacity for risk, and investing in countries that lack economic stability is like buying gold or dollars, selling them immediately when their value goes up, and then waiting for their value to go down again buy again and wait to it goes it's peak.
I must do a little research on EasyEquities and make sure they don't block my account when I access to my credit with Iranian IP address like what Paypal doing against Iranians. Your advice is really valuable and useful, I need to do more research to get the desired result, which one is more suitable considering my geographical location and the amount I intend to invest.
 
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swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
85,040
  • swag

    swag

Thx for reply, much appreciated.
First let me I tell you forget Crypto! to me Crypto is not a real investment. In fact, it is not subject to anything and its conversion into physical money is almost arbitrary. Of course some people love it! One of my friends always advises me to invest in Tether because it gives profit! But it depends on many insecure methods where you have to trust intermediaries and intermediary sites which has very high risk including fraud.
As for the dollar, it increased by over ten percent in Iran in just two weeks of the Iran-Israel war, and then decreased after the war!!
You definitely have to have the capacity for risk, and investing in countries that lack economic stability is like buying gold or dollars, selling them immediately when their value goes up, and then waiting for their value to go down again buy again and wait to it goes it's peak.
I must do a little research on EasyEquities and make sure they don't block my account when I access to my credit with Iranian IP address like what Paypal doing against Iranians. Your advice is really valuable and useful, I need to do more research to get the desired result, which one is more suitable considering my geographical location and the amount I intend to invest.
Here's what I see as the pros and cons against crypto...

Pros
-Wild fluctuations and variability means you stand to make bigger gains, and losses, over a shorter period.
-Some of it will underpin financial infrastructure in the future. That said, that doesn't necessarily mean you can profit off that by owning a coin, IMO.
-The original idea behind Bitcoin to de-financialize from nation states that profit off inflation makes sense. Hence crypto has ironically been a better investment in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs, formerly known as Second/Third World or Global South) where you will be eaten alive by inflation, such as in Argentina. (Hence why Argentina is the largest holder of US $100 bills in the world: mattress stuffing.) But it's a fantasy if you believe like Balaji Srinivasan that nation states can be bypassed because you have a digital interest group with money that crosses borders.

Cons
-As the Vanguard CIO points out: crypto is by definition a dead asset. It cannot grow by design. Thus its only opportunity for growth is through speculation. There is no reinvestment, there is no increase in cash flow, there are no dividends.
-The primitive state of its regulation means it's ripe for fraud, abuse, money laundering, and crime. For crypto to be legitimized more, it will end up mirroring more of the existing financial system regulatory infrastructure as it exists today.
-Still thorny and clumsy to transact with, and everyone knows your business if they know your wallet.

Tether gives a profit because their financial model banks on speculation. Just as when you purchase a bond with a high return rate, that is also a red flag that it's not sustainable and there's a much higher likelihood that it could default and you get zero. Any offering based on a non-growing coin asset base that funds you with interest growth is rolling dice with your money. They are on a short list for risk of unsustainable collapse. Consider them to be crypto loan sharks.

I don't know anything about EasyEquities other than it seemed to operate in Iran to sell ETFs to consumers and didn't have completely horrible ratings. It seems like most of the businesses in Iran that do something similar are hated.
 

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