What happens: Italy qualify if...
Friday 13 June, 2008
It is out of the Azzurri’s hands, but they could reach the Euro 2008 quarter-finals even with a draw.
Holland’s 4-1 thrashing of France has sent Marco Van Basten’s men through to the next round and guaranteed top spot in Group C with six points.
The second qualification spot is up in the air, as Romania have two with France and Italy on one apiece.
This means that
Romania will definitely go through if they beat Holland – something they already achieved in qualifying for this tournament.
However,
it is possible that the Azzurri could reach the quarters even with only a draw against France.
That is because if Holland beat Romania and Italy draw with Les Bleus by scoring at least one goal, all three teams would be tied on two points.
The head-to-head record would be entirely even with a draw in each encounter, but Italy would have a better goal difference in these clashes, having scored against both Romania and France.
The fact remains that it is out of Roberto Donadoni’s hands, as Holland need to get a result against Romania.
This is worrying for three reasons and the Italian media is already swarming around two of them. Firstly, Romania won their qualifying group ahead of Holland, having managed a win and a draw in those encounters.
Second, the Dutch are already qualified and could field a second string side, safe in the knowledge leadership of Group C is assured.
The third and most dispiriting conspiracy theory is that the way the competition is structured means Holland could knock out Italy and France, therefore avoiding a potential semi-final rematch.
It brings back unfortunate memories of Euro 2004, when the Nazionale was eliminated despite beating Bulgaria in the final round because Denmark and Sweden drew 2-2 – the only result that guaranteed both Scandinavians would go through.
http://www.channel4.com/sport/football_italia/jun13w.html