Champions League 2017/2018 (5 Viewers)

Maddy

Oracle of Copenhagen
Jul 10, 2009
16,541
I understand this, but in comparison to the number of times the other top teams have played each other in the past 5 years, it really does feel like Uefa are trying to go for a Real - Barce final.

I cannot see how we can have:

2 Bayern - Real games
2 Bayern - Barcelona games
3 Juve - Real games
3 Real - A.Madrid games
2 Juve - Barcelona games

in the knockout stages, in only the past 5 years, and not one Barcelona vs Real.

Something smells. I do not trust either Uefa or Fifa on this.
:sergio:

This only thing that smells is your ability to understand probability.
 

Stephan

Senior Member
Nov 9, 2005
16,385
Why is that after the last 3 years, Juve is still seen an outsider to the big 3 of Barca, Real and Bayern? Most people even give City a better chance than us.

It can't be the finals losses cuz Bayern didn't even make the final in the last 3 years.
Cause we sell major name every summer and our winning record of the competition is worse than the above mentioned. And i know Barca sold Neymar. But they have Messi. Real and Bayern have managers who have won it multiple times.

City have spent more than us last decade and also have a manager who won it 2x.
 
Mar 10, 2009
8,119
:sergio:

This only thing that smells is your ability to understand probability.

So what's the probability of Juventus playing Real 3 times in comparison to Real and Barcelona never playing each other?

Also more to add to the list:

2 Bayern vs Juve games since 2013.

Funny how all the big teams have played each other at least once, except a certain pair.
 

mabuchaq

Junior Member
Nov 30, 2011
240
Show me the calculation then; for each draw.
Last 8 years, both have qualified to QFs yet they did not draw each other.
Below is the calculation of 2 teams drawing each other at least once in 8 years.

Year 1: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 2: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 4: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 4: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 5: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 6: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 7: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 8: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen

The probability for the above event combined is 6/7 to the power 8 = 0.3436089158

As such, the probability that the event of Barca and Real draw each other at least once in 8 years = 1-0.3436089158 = 0.6563910842 = 65.63910842%
 

Stephan

Senior Member
Nov 9, 2005
16,385
Why do you guys bother so much about it. It is what it is. We cant do anything about. If they truly fixed it we would have had a Barca-Real final by now. Just give fixed red card against opponent in the semis. Or a pen kick. Since there is no VAR nothing to force to recheck.

They could have given Real Sevilla (5:0 win in league) if they wanted the fix. We are harder opponent historically in 2legs.
 

juve123

Senior Member
Aug 10, 2017
15,324
Roberto Carlos' Champions League draw leads to calls of conspiracy



Thursday's Champions League draw was relatively friendly to the four English teams involved, with Leicester City, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City all presented with groups from which they would hope to qualify.

Roberto Carlos was one of the ex-players involved in this year's draw, and supporters of many of the bigger clubs can be thankful to him for sparing them an obvious 'group of death'.

Of course, we're not suggesting the Brazilian legend deliberately ensured an easy passage to the knockout stages - but other people seem convinced he was at the centre of a huge conspiracy.

Most years you get unfounded theories about 'warm balls' being used to keep certain teams apart from one another, but some believe Roberto Carlos' actions are even more suspicious.

They have noted that, during the draw, he removed one ball from a bowl before returning it and drawing out another.

He ends up drawing out Ludogorets Razgrad, the Bulgarian champions who took a point off Liverpool in the 2014/15 season.

They ended up in Group A, alongside PSG, Arsenal and Basel. Was there another team's name in the ball he drew out first? We'll never know. But we're not sure what difference it makes to an Arsenal team that might otherwise have ended up facing the might of FC Copenhagen or Celtic.

Sure, Dinamo Zagreb were also an option, but the Croatians' victory over the Gunners last season was the exception, not the rule. And anyway, if you were really going to fix a draw you surely wouldn't make the pot 4 teams the focus. Surely...
 
Mar 10, 2009
8,119
Why do you guys bother so much about it. It is what it is. We cant do anything about. If they truly fixed it we would have had a Barca-Real final by now. Just give fixed red card against opponent in the semis. Or a pen kick. Since there is no VAR nothing to force to recheck.

They could have given Real Sevilla if they wanted the fix.


Dude, ever Blatter claimed that UEFA fix draws
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport...-balls-as-fifa-corruption-probe-a7081161.html

Unfortunately football is corrupt due to the amount of money it brings.

I do not think that refs are 'bought,' but I do think there is a lot of doggy dealing in terms of which country hosts tournaments and draws by UEFA/FIFA.
 

MikeM

Footballing Hipster celebrating 4th place with Tuz
Sep 21, 2008
12,461
2 Balls are frozen before hand. You tell Shevchenko, "Listen buddy if you pick a frozen ball, don't pick the other one right after".

"Ok."

Barca-Real never happens in quarters.
 

pitbull

Senior Member
Jul 26, 2007
11,045
Last 8 years, both have qualified to QFs yet they did not draw each other.
Below is the calculation of 2 teams drawing each other at least once in 8 years.

Year 1: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 2: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 4: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 4: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 5: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 6: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 7: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 8: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen

The probability for the above event combined is 6/7 to the power 8 = 0.3436089158

As such, the probability that the event of Barca and Real draw each other at least once in 8 years = 1-0.3436089158 = 0.6563910842 = 65.63910842%
Glad that you fixed it from 3/4 to 6/7. You should throw in the semis of 2014/15 and there were probably some other years as well (2012/13?) but anyways, it's not a sure thing mathematically
 

mabuchaq

Junior Member
Nov 30, 2011
240
Glad that you fixed it from 3/4 to 6/7. You should throw in the semis of 2014/15 and there were probably some other years as well (2012/13?) but anyways, it's not a sure thing mathematically
Haha, math skills a bit rusty.
In any case, the probability shows that Real and Barca not drawing each other is an unlikely event but still very possible.
 

Linebreak

Senior Member
Sep 18, 2009
16,021
Why is that after the last 3 years, Juve is still seen an outsider to the big 3 of Barca, Real and Bayern? Most people even give City a better chance than us.

It can't be the finals losses cuz Bayern didn't even make the final in the last 3 years.
It's a good question but I'm pretty sure it's because of our style of play. We rarely seen to dominate anyone so it's assumed we ride our luck at times.
 

Dantes

Senior Member
Dec 15, 2017
1,042
Last 8 years, both have qualified to QFs yet they did not draw each other.
Below is the calculation of 2 teams drawing each other at least once in 8 years.

Year 1: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 2: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 4: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 4: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 5: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 6: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 7: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen
Year 8: 6/7 chance it doesn't happen

The probability for the above event combined is 6/7 to the power 8 = 0.3436089158

As such, the probability that the event of Barca and Real draw each other at least once in 8 years = 1-0.3436089158 = 0.6563910842 = 65.63910842%
Nice maths!

The probability of rolling 9, 10, 11 or 12 with two dice is 27.78%. Less than your 34% for not Real-Barca. Whilst you might not bet on either outcome unless the payout was worth the risk, it's not so unlikely that it'd be a huge surprise if it happened.

And to think that the people doing the draw (many ex-players affiliated with teams other than these two) are in on any collusion is ludicrous. All it takes is for one to say "fuck that, and by the way, I'm going to the press" and that's UEFA down the toilet.
 

Cerval

Senior Member
Feb 20, 2016
26,829
Mourinho: "In the UCL, there are four clubs that are always there in the quarter-finals. Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus & Bayern are always there. They're always there for some reason.

After them, every now & then, clubs like my Inter or Monaco appear in the QFs."
 

Alen

Ѕenior Аdmin
Apr 2, 2007
52,536
I understand this, but in comparison to the number of times the other top teams have played each other in the past 5 years, it really does feel like Uefa are trying to go for a Real - Barce final.

I cannot see how we can have:

2 Bayern - Real games
2 Bayern - Barcelona games
3 Juve - Real games
3 Real - A.Madrid games
2 Juve - Barcelona games

in the knockout stages, in only the past 5 years, and not one Barcelona vs Real.

Something smells. I do not trust either Uefa or Fifa on this.
So how do they do it?
Two warm balls (Barca and Real) and the super rich football superstars who draw the balls are told not to pair the warm balls together? If they bother to make this blatant crime, why stop at the two warm balls? Why don't they go a step further by making sure that Barca and Real get an easier draw? Last year Real got Bayern in the quarters and Barca got Juve. Leicester, Dortmund and Monaco were in the quarters too. Since they had the two warm balls, it wouldn't have been a problem to add two cold ones.
 

ALC

Ohaulick
Oct 28, 2010
45,996
So how do they do it?
Two warm balls (Barca and Real) and the super rich football superstars who draw the balls are told not to pair the warm balls together? If they bother to make this blatant crime, why stop at the two warm balls? Why don't they go a step further by making sure that Barca and Real get an easier draw? Last year Real got Bayern in the quarters and Barca got Juve. Leicester, Dortmund and Monaco were in the quarters too. Since they had the two warm balls, it wouldn't have been a problem to add two cold ones.
Getting men to touch two warm balls might be a little harder than it seems.
 

Quetzalcoatl

It ain't hard to tell
Aug 22, 2007
65,499
So how do they do it?
Two warm balls (Barca and Real) and the super rich football superstars who draw the balls are told not to pair the warm balls together? If they bother to make this blatant crime, why stop at the two warm balls? Why don't they go a step further by making sure that Barca and Real get an easier draw? Last year Real got Bayern in the quarters and Barca got Juve. Leicester, Dortmund and Monaco were in the quarters too. Since they had the two warm balls, it wouldn't have been a problem to add two cold ones.
Then it would be too obvious #conspiracies101
 

Stephan

Senior Member
Nov 9, 2005
16,385
Mourinho: "In the UCL, there are four clubs that are always there in the quarter-finals. Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus & Bayern are always there. They're always there for some reason.

After them, every now & then, clubs like my Inter or Monaco appear in the QFs."
We drew Bayern 2 years ago before qf.

Did Mourinho just say that now? The guy who just lost to Sevilla to also make QFs.
 

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