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You decide :) - - - Updated - - - -.-

Nah, you said "don't be surprised if it's one of these three" :D But yeah, SLP could definitely surprise.

The last time a Best Picture winner didn't get a Best Director nomination was with Driving Miss Daisy. If Zero Dark Thirty or Argo wins it will be a huuuuuuuuge surprise. Lincoln is the clear favorite at this point though.

Argo and Zero Dark thirty will (almost certainly) not win. A Best Picture winner usually always has a Best Director nominations as well. There are a few exceptions, but it's extremely rare.

Wanna bet that you get more than half wrong? :D